|
EXECUTIVE BRIEFING
1.0 Introductory Comments
1.1 Rationale for this Report
1.2 The Four Generations of Digital Set-Tops
2.0 Primary Market Determinants
2.1 Technological Advances in the STB Platform
2.1.1 Silicon Advances
SoC solutions
DSTB Chips and Window Media 9
2.1.2 Advances in OS, Middleware and Applications
Software
Operating Systems
Middleware
Application Software
Advances in Media Distribution
Software
2.1.3 The role of standardization efforts
2.2 Consumer Factors
2.2.1 Modular Purchasing Behavior
2.2.2 Consumer (Un)Willingness to Bear the Costs
of Advanced Set-Tops
2.3 Spending by U.S. Multiservice Operators (MSOs)
2.3.1 Move from analog to digital format
2.3.2 Capital shifting from fixed to variable
capex
2.3.3 Move to multiple service paradigm
2.3.4 Contradictory Financial & Competitive
Pressures
Competitive threats
Decline in Legacy Revenues
Increased Subscriber Churn
Poor Return on Capital (ROC)
Erosion of Market
Capitalization
Collapse of MSO Credit Ratings
Emphasis on Growing Net Profits
and Free Cash Flow
2.3.5 Rollout of new digital entertainment
services
Digital cable
Video-on-demand
PVR
Pervasive ambivalence toward
new services
Platforms Are Likely to Remain
Physically Separate
2.3.6 The Viability of the Side-Car Model
2.3.7 MSOs Remain Reluctant to Embrace 4G
Set-Tops/Media Servers
2.4 Concerns Among Set-Top Vendors
2.4.1 Losses Mounting
2.4.2 The issue of DSTB retail availability
2.4.3 The FCC Mandate for Digital TVs
2.4.4 The issue of digital rights management
2.5 Other Platforms Emerging to Compete with the Media Server
Set-Top
2.5.1 The PC as the Home Media Server
Microsoft
Intel
The Emergence of PC-Based
Digital Entertainment Content
2.5.2 The Gaming Console as the Home Media Server
2.6 Network-Based Services Could Eliminate Need for Thick Client
Boxes
3.0 Forecasts through 2006
3.1 Cumulative Digital Cable, VOD, and PVR Subscribers
3.2 Number of U.S. Households with 4G/Media Server Cable DSTBs
3.3 Total Value of 4G Cable DSTBs Shipped into U.S. Households
ANALYSIS & FORECASTS
1.0 The Platform
1.1 The Fundamental Architecture
1.1.1 System Board
1.1.2 Tuners
1.1.3 Modulator and Demodulator
Quadrature Amplitude Modulation
(QAM)
Orthogonal Frequency Division
Multiplexing (OFDM)
Quadrature Phase Shift Key (QPSK)
1.1.4 Demultiplexer and Decryptor
1.1.5 Decoders
1.1.6 Graphics processor
1.1.7 Central Processing Unit (CPU)
1.1.8 Memory
RAM/DRAM/SRAM
ROM
FLASH Memory
1.1.9 Storage
1.1.10 Physical Interfaces
Telephone/Dial-up modem
interfaces
Ethernet port (F-Connector or
RJ-45)
Serial and parallel ports
Smart-card readers/slots
PCMCIA card slots
IR-based remote control and
keyboard interfaces
Audio Input/Outputs
Baseband
Audio (L/R) Input/Outputs
Sony/Philips
Digital Interfaces (S/PDIF)
Video Input/Outputs
Baseband
Video Input/Output
SCART
RF
Input/Output
S -Video
Input/Output
YPbPr (YCbCr)
component output
IDE (EIDE) Port
1.1.11 LAN Interfaces
Wired Solutions
Ethernet
IEEE 1394
(FireWire®)
Universal
Serial Bus (USB)
No-New-Wires
HomePNA (HPNA)
Powerline
Coax
Wireless
802.11
HomeRF
UWB
1.2 The Four Generations of Digital Set-Tops
2.0 The Players
2.1 Celerity
2.2 CiaoLab Technologies
2.3 Eagle Broadband
2.4 Ener1
2.5 Motorola
2.6 Pace Micro Technology
2.7 Pioneer Electronics USA
2.8 Plexuscom/GCT-Allwell
2.9 Scientific Atlanta
2.10 SonicBLUE
2.11 TiVo Inc.
2.12 Sidebar: The Sony Cocoon DVR
3.0 The Context
3.1 Industry Factors
3.1.1 Multiservice Operators (MSOs)
Move from analog to digital
format
Capital shifting from fixed to
variable capex
Move to multiple service
paradigm
Financial
incentives
Declining Legacy Revenues
Increased Subscriber Churn
Market Pressure
Competitive threats
Examples of
multiple & bundled service offerings among MSOs
Cox Communications
RCN
AT&T Broadband
Rollouts of
new digital entertainment services
Digital cable
Video-on-demand
HDTV
PVR
Set-Top
Platform is Pervasive
Current penetration
Well-established distribution model
Cable’s
ambivalence toward new services
Front-end loaded strategies
Sufficiency paradox
Pullbacks in
roll-outs of advanced STBs
Cablevisions Cancellation of High-End Sony Boxes
AT&T’s decision on the DCT5000
Charter’s “side-car” strategy
Most Cable MSOs remain reluctant to rollout thick-client boxes en masse
3.1.2 Set-Top Vendors
Losses mounting at set-top
manufacturers
Scientific
Atlanta
Motorola
Pace Micro
The issue of DSTB retail
availability
FCC Mandate
for Retail Availability of Set-Top Boxes
Will This
Model Truly Come to Pass?
Power of the Oligarchs
Service providers may have a beef or two
Will this
Model Work?
The issue of digital rights
management
3.2 Consumer Factors
3.2.1 Interest in New Digital Services
Digital cable
VOD
PVR
3.2.2 Negative perception of cable companies
3.3 Technology Factors
3.3.1 General Trend toward Convergence
Explaining Convergence
3.3.2 Advances in the Set-Top Platform
Silicon Advances
ATI
Technologies
Conexant
Broadcom
Advances in OS, Middleware and
Applications Software
Operating
Systems
Middleware
What is middleware?
Middleware Open Standards and Set-top Boxes
Middleware Vendors
Application
Software
3.3.3 Advances in Media Distribution Software
ViXS
Magis Networks
FireMedia
Ucentric
3.3.4 The role of standardization efforts
DOCSIS
OpenCable
OpenCable
Hardware Specifications
OpenCable
Middleware Specifications
4.0 Analysis & Forecasts
4.1 No Doubt: Multiservice Models Mean Multiservice CPE
4.2 Platforms are likely to remain physically separate
4.3 MSO Financial Pressures Limit Rollout of Media Server DSTBs
4.3.1 Stock Devaluations
4.3.2 Collapse of MSO Credit Ratings
4.3.3 Emphasis on Growing Net Profits and Free
Cash Flow
4.3.4 Penetration of New Digital Services Remains
Limited
4.3.5 The Viability of the Side-Car Model
4.3.6 MSOs Remain Reluctant to Embrace 4G
Set-Tops/Media Servers
4.4 The FCC Mandate for Digital TVs
4.5 Consumer Desire to Keep the Platforms Separate
4.6 Uncertainty Surrounding Consumer Willingness to Bear the Costs
of Advanced Set-Tops
4.7 Other Platforms Emerging to Compete with the Media Server
Set-Top
4.7.1 The PC as the Home Media Server
Microsoft
Intel
The Emergence of PC-Based
Digital Entertainment Content
4.7.2 The Gaming Console as the Home Media Server
4.8 Network-Based Services Could Eliminate Need for Thick-Client
Boxes
4.9 Forecasts Through 2006
4.9.1 Building the Model
4.9.2 Cable Network Upgrades
4.9.3 Forecast for U.S. Digital Cable Households
4.9.4 Forecast for U.S. Cable VOD Households
4.9.5 Forecast for U.S. Cable PVR Households
4.9.6 Cumulative Digital Cable, VOD, and PVR
Subscribers
4.9.7 Number of U.S. Households with 4G/Media
Server Cable DSTBs
4.9.8 Total Value of 4G Cable DSTBs Shipped into
U.S. Households
|
