By Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, Senior Analyst

Publish Date: March 03
Purchase Report Online

• the reformation process;
• outlines the government's regulations;
• analyzes the new competitive landscape, with special focuses on mobile and data services;
• describes the opportunities for access network and other equipment vendors; and
• makes predictions about the prospects for "convergence."

The report also profiles China's six major telecom operators.

"No money to be made in a market with more than 1.3 billion people and a 7-8% average GDP growth rate? Doesn't that sound oxymoronic? Even with regulated competition in the Chinese telecom market, there are abundant business opportunities," said Michael Cai, research analyst for Parks Associates. "It all depends on how well you understand the market and how you tackle it. Undue optimism leads to disaster, while overly pessimistic spectators will only see the window of opportunities slowly closing. Reality and objective analysis are what counts."

2.0 Eight Years of Accelerated Reformation
   2.1 1994: Breaking Up a Pure Monopoly
   2.2 1998: Separation of Administrative Duties from Operative Functions
   2.3 1999: The First Split
   2.4 2002: The Second Split

3.0 Chinese Telecom Market Overview
   3.1 Country Background
   3.2 State Organs
   3.3 Macro Economy
      3.3.1 Sustainable Economic Growth
      3.3.2 The Power of People
      3.3.3 The Emergence of a Middle Class
   3.4 Development of Electronics/IT/Telecom industry
   3.5 The State of the Chinese Telecom Industry
      3.5.1 Defining the Telecom Industry Domain
      3.5.2 The Overall Competitiveness of the Chinese Telecom Industry
      3.5.3 The Emerging Domestic Vendors
      3.5.4 The New Competitive Landscape in Carriers Market
      3.5.5 Telecom Industry Infrastructure

4.0 The Government's Perspective
   4.1 Laws and Regulations
   4.2 The Functions and reforms of the MII
   4.3 Goals of the Telecom Industry Set by the 10th Five-Year Plan
   4.4 Focus of the Next Round of Reformation
      4.4.1 Interconnection
      4.4.2 Bridging the Chasm
      4.4.3 Convergence
   4.5 WTO Commitments
   4.6 Foreign Investment Policies
   4.7 Other Unique Chinese Characteristics

5.0 Telecom Services: Stars and Dogs
   5.1 Fixed Line
      5.1.1 Local
      5.1.2 Toll
   5.2 Mobile
      5.2.1 Gaming Theory in Action
         The Duopoly
         Unicom's CDMA Strategy
         Mutual Concerns
      5.2.2 PAS: A 10 Million Niche Market
      5.2.3 Mobile VAS: SMS/MMS and Other Data Services
      5.2.4 3G: Watching Flowers through Fog
         3G? No Rush
         Mobile Licenses, Spectrum Allocation, and 3G Standard Selection
         TD-SCDMA: a Survivor
      5.2.5 Change in Handset Manufacturing and Distribution Market
   5.3 Broadband Services
      5.3.1 Overview
         ISPs, ICPs and ASPs
         Growth of Internet Users
         The Broadband Service Market
         Various Broadband Access Methods
      5.3.2 ADSL/xDSL
      5.3.3 FTTB + Ethernet
      5.3.4 Cable Modem
      5.3.5 WLAN
         The US Wi-Fi Market
         The Development of WLAN in China
         Drivers and Inhibitors for Future Growth of WLAN
         Opportunities for WISPs and Equipment Vendors
      5.3.6 Fixed Wireless
   5.4 Enterprise Services
   5.5 Other Value-Added Services

6.0 Telecom Operators: Reality Check
   6.1 China Mobile
   6.2 China Telecom
   6.3 China Netcom
   6.4 China Unicom
   6.5 China Railcom
   6.6 China Satcom

7.0 Implications for Vendors on the Value Chain
   7.1 Case One: "Little Smart" is Quite Smart-UTStarcom
   7.2 Case Two: Sweet No.1-Motorola
   7.3 Case Three: Enters Futurewei-Huawei
   7.4 Declining CAPEX and its Implications
   7.5 Bright Spots for Investments and Strategic Alliances

Figures in Section 2.0
Postal & Telecom Industry Growth and GDP Growth Comparison
Price Reduction of Handset and Connection
Improving Management Efficiency
Reconfiguring China Telecom

Figures in Section 3.0
China at a Glance
State Organs Organization Chart
The Continuous Urbanization Process
Telecom Competitiveness Index Comparison
Authorized Licenses for Major Carriers

Figures in Section 4.0
The Scope of Telecom Regulation
Comparison of Teledensity in Western, Middle, and Eastern China
Comparison of Urban and Rural Average Annual Income
China's Schedule of Specific Commitments on Telecom Services

Figures in Section 5.0
Growth of Fixed-Line Subs 1995-2002
The Competitive Long Distance Market 2002
Growth of Mobile Subs 1995-2002
Mobile Growth Slowing Down
Comparison of Subscriber Composition
Changing Subscriber Composition of China Mobile
MOU and ARPU of China Mobile
Declining ARPU of China Mobile and Unicom
The Rapid Growth of SMS
China Mobile: Development of Mobile Data Services
Speculations on Future Mobile Carriers and Their 3G Standard Selection
China's Spectrum Allocation for 3G
Chinese Vendor's Share of Domestic Handset Market
Top Handset Manufacturers in China
IP Backbone Operators
The Growth of Internet Users 1995-2002
Consumer Interests in Signing up for Broadband Services
Growth of Broadband Subscribers in 2002
Broadband User Forecast
Growth of Different Broadband Access Method 2002
LAN losing Market Share
Growth of LAN Capacity 2002
Current WLAN Offerings from Telecom Carriers
Drivers and Inhibitors for WLAN Services
Barriers to Entry Ratings for New WISP Entrants
The Change of Telecom VAS Classification

Figures in Section 7.0
The Leapfrogging Performance of UTStarcom
The Growth of Telecom Fixed Asset Investment

© March 2003 Parks Associates
Dallas, Texas 75230

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, 
in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Printed in the United States of America.

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