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THE VALUE OF FORECASTS
Any business planner knows the necessity of
product and service forecasts. However, an inaccurate forecast
is just as dangerous for business planning as no forecast at
all. Parks Associates follows a logic-based forecast methodology
tied to commonly trusted statistics such as housing numbers,
population growth, and broadband penetration, as revealed by
agencies such as the ITU, OECD, the U.S. Bureau of Census, and
Parks Associates’ own global and domestic primary consumer
research.
WHY ELECTRONIC?
Our clients often build complex forecast
models. We offer our forecasts as an Excel workbook, providing a
framework for modeling, manipulation, and extension. This
ongoing series of forecasts is updated throughout the year.
 REGIONAL FORECASTS
Regional Forecasts through 2012 include:
Asia/Pacific
Europe
North America
Rest of the World
COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY DETAIL
For those clients seeking country-by-country
detail, we can construct specific models. This approach requires
extra time and goes beyond the scope of the Forecast Workbook.
PARKS ASSOCIATES PRIMARY RESEARCH
The forecasts are partly derived from Parks Associates primary
research studies, including:
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Global Digital Living™ III
In it's third year, Global Digital
Living™ III identifies the market potential
for technology products and services in Asia/Pacific,
Australia, the Americas, and Western Europe. This project
provides in a “global opportunity map” outlining the best
opportunities as well as the highest barriers to product
deployment.
More Info |
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Digital Media Habits
This annual online survey looks at consumer behavior
patterns in the U.S. as centered on four categories of
platforms: televisions, computers, game consoles, and
portables. The relationship between these habits and
platforms is analyzed as well as consumer interest in new
products and services. Moreover, the study assesses the
emerging role of consumer generated content and the impact
it is having on digital media use.
More Info |
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The National Scan
This annual telephone survey of US consumers provides
the most accurate picture of current adoption levels,
demand, and market size. Such data is crucial for strategic
planning and forecasting sales and revenues for product
lines and services.
More Info |
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FORECAST DRIVERS
The Economy
The economy dictates the level of investment companies will put
into development and marketing, and perceptions of economic health
are a critical factor in consumer purchase decisions.
Housing Growth
The health of the housing sector is a critical factor in
determining new product and service sales for solutions aimed
specifically at the new home and/or retrofit market. Many
installed systems forecasts tie directly to projections for
housing growth or contraction.
Technology Advancements
Drivers relative to technology include the emergence of more
feature-rich services and products that can encourage uptake.
Replacement Cycles
Many consumer electronics products have regular replacement
cycles. Understanding the timing of a product within its lifecycle
is a key consideration in projecting unit sales.
Consumer Trends
Consumer trends driving the industry are numerous. Significant
trends include aging populations, a more mobile society, new
purchase influencers, the purchase power of large ethnic and
cultural groups, and a growing desire for “middle-class luxury”
goods.
Lower Prices
As is typical for any technology, the products will be available
to a greater number of consumers as price decreases, thus driving
adoption.
Subsidies
Particularly evident with customer premise equipment and mobile
phone handsets, the extent to which service providers will offer
products at much lower prices and/or under lease terms.
After-market and Accessory Trends
Certain products can drive after-market and accessory sales.
Understanding the relationship between how a primary purchase may
drive an accessory device is an important variable.
Competition
Competition drives product and service differentiation, which can
lead to desired features and capabilities. It can also allow
companies to bundle in value-added features while keeping service
or product costs low to encourage adoption.
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