By James Snider
Chairman, 1394 Trade Association
Worldwide Strategic Marketing Manager for Bus Solutions, Texas Instruments

There is a noticeable sense of excitement in the 1394 community these days. According to the best sources, sales of 1394 enabled products were under 3 million in 1998, however, sales will jump to just over 14 million in 1999 with an estimated increase to 50 million units in 2000.

So what products are driving this rapid growth?

Today, 1394 is shipping in camcorders from Sony, Panasonic, Canon, JVC, and Sharp. 1394 DV Camcorders are rolling off the assembly line at a rate of 1 million camcorders per quarter, with a total of 9 million currently in the market (since their introduction in the summer of 1995). It is my projection that non-DV camcorders will start to fizzle early next year with few new analog models being introduced. The first sub-$800 1394 Camcorders are already in the market, but expect to see sub-$500 models this year! DV Camcorders are moving into the main stream.

1394 D-VCRs and D-STBs are already available in Japan. Expect to see a few models in the USA early in 2000. However, the launch of the 1394 D-TV is harder to predict. Some models are slipping from 4Q99 to 1Q00 as they wait for the latest 1394 silicon. Expect to see at least one 1394 D-TV in stores by the end of the year. The big push is going to be getting 1394 enabled D-TVs in the market in time for the Summer Olympics. Several models will be introduced with this deadline in mind.

The real surprise in 1999 is the rapid growth of 1394 products coming from the PC industry. PCs are shipping today from Compaq, Sony, Apple, NEC and Epson (in Japan), with Engineering Work Stations from Silicon Graphics and Sun. Notebook computers are really picking up speed with recent product releases from Gateway, Panasonic (in Japan) and Sharp (in Japan) joining several 1394 notebooks from Sony. 1394/FireWire is only in Apple G3/G4s now but it is expected to show up in iMacs "soon". Three more of the top 10 PC makers will ship 1394 products this year with three more new companies in the first half of 2000.

Some of the "coolest" PCs and Notebooks are coming out of Japan now. There has been a significant shift among the Japanese PC makers within the last quarter. Earlier this year, they were still cautious, but now the prevalent opinion is that they must add 1394 ASAP if they want to remain competitive. This is particularly true among notebook makers. Sony's success (currently ranked number 6 in Japan) has the notebook industry paying attention.

As far as 1394 peripherals are concerned, Fuji-Xerox began selling a 1394 scanner in Japan last April and is offering 1394 as an option on a printer. Epson and FujiFilm also have 1394 printers on the market. Scanners are coming from three top scanner makers. UMAX has already announced a scanner due in 4Q99. 1394 HDDs from Yano, MacTell, and VST are available today, but good luck finding one. They are selling out quickly. Fujitsu recently released a 1394 MO drive and Sony a CD-RW. And finally, there will be several affordable 1394 desktop cameras in the market just as soon as the silicon is available. That should be early 2000.

What is causing this burst of 1394 products onto the market?

Once the first products show up, others tend to follow. Compaq caught a lot of people's attention, but don't underestimate the impact of Sony or Apple (who has returned to the land of the living). Microsoft's continued support is also enabling new peripherals. With SBP2, removable storage, Device Bay, and peripheral support showing up in service releases of Windows software, 1394 peripheral makers are finally able to release products which have been waiting for months. In 1999, the price of 1394 silicon has been too high. Only high end products have been sporting 1394 ports until now. With the price of 1394 silicon dropping in half between 4Q99 and 1Q00, 1394 will rapidly be deployed in mid-priced products. And finally, several thorny issues, IP licensing and copy protection to mention a few, have been resolved.

It has taken a very long time for 1394 to gain the momentum required for it to become inevitable. It is firmly established in the consumer and professional A/V realm. The PC industry has been slow to adopt it, but that is changing. Estimates range from 25% to 40% of the PCs shipping by end of 2000 will have 1394 ports. In an industry used to technologies going from introduction to obsolescence in a few years, 1394 is an anomaly. But then, 1394 is the first technology to bring consumer A/V, PC, and Peripheral devices together over a common cable. The good news is, 1394 is here and in 2000 it will reach critical mass. Revolutions can happen quickly, but sometimes paradigm shifts take a little longer.